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The fiscal surplus and the Euro give margin to confront the deceleration
The great indicators macro denote one more an adjusted situation with respect to the 1992 crisis and 1993 Are the change of economic cycle in as dangerous Spain they paint as it? When from many means it is spoken abiertamente of economic crisis and to of future recession, it can be useful to throw a glance to the numbers of 1992, waiting room of the last contractive phase. During that one Spain year it staged his jump to modernity with an exemplary organization of the Olympic Games of Barcelona and the Universal Exhibition of Seville. But the GIP as soon as a 0.7% grew, to arrive at the recession of 1% in the following year. More of million destroyed jobs and unemployment superior to 20% they were the corollary. The present numbers have little to do with those. Unemployment has lowered until the European average of 8%, and the occupied population goes up to around the 20 million people, more than eight more than in 1992. A guarantee of future income for the Social Security, although with reverse the diabolic one of more potential stopping. The main economic anchorage is in the public accounts. In 1992, the national debt reached 48% of the GIP, and budgetary deficit, 4%. The situation is today much more healthy: the State takes all the legislature in fiscal surplus, which, among other things, has allowed to less than reduce the debt to 40% of the GIP. That saving grants maneuver margin to the State to bet by one of the traditional Keynsian principles: to lift the public cost to mitigate the skinny cows in the deprived sector, without discarding fiscal cuts that stimulate the investment and the consumption. The infrastructures offer a suitable solution for the use drainage that already begins to undergo the real estate construction, according to reflect the last data of the Social Security. Inflationary rise The other data that has alarmed the past week is the uncontrol of the prices. With a 4.3%, the harmonized IPC reached in December their maximum in 12 years, to blast of a petroleum barrel to 100 Euros and forts raised in the foods, that are affecting the set of Europe. The differential front to the zone Euro, of 1.2 points, escapes in only two the tenth historical average, and during almost all the year been in minimums near means point. The differences against 1992 also are here remarkable: without abnormal ascents of power prices, the IPC of December was of 5.3%, and the average of the year reached 6%, more of the double than the present one. On the other hand, the economy today is much more abierta: if in 1992 the sum of exports and imports were equivalent to 37% of the GIP, today it reaches near 65%, and something similar can be said of the investment. It does to more voluble Spain to outer disturbances (like the credit crisis), although, at the same time, it favors to him plus the present European recovery. The great difference in terms of fragility is the financial dependancy: the excess of investment makes galopar the current deficit towards 10% of the GIP, almost the double that in the 92. A situation insane, but mitigated by the property in the Economic and Monetary Union. The Euro maintains the financial flows towards Spain, in spite of the increasing indebtedness, and supposes thus the other great anchorage that defends to the country of the possible turbulences. On the contrary, neither the Government nor the Bank of Spain are or owners of the monetary policy, which excludes the possibility of decreeing competitive devaluations, to the way in which it became in 1993 (with little stimulating results, of any way). In the political scope, everyone brings closer the live coal to its sardine: the spokesmen of the Popular Party of decree necessity with urgent measures, and accuse the Government to squander the inheritance of the Executive of José Maria Aznar. Nevertheless, also that one phase of bonanza (that started in 1994, with Pedro Solbes to the front of the Ministry of Economy) underwent a pocket in 2002, when the GIP grew a 2% that today many would label as catastrophic. In the other side of the arc, Social Asuntos and Secretary of Labor, Jesus Boiler, said yesterday to “the ominous ones of the misfortune” that does not exist economic crisis and that the growth “follows robust”, without talking about to the recent destruction of use. The numbers guarantee the possibilities that Spain heaves the possible weather, except for regarding the outer sector. The salvation in this point is the property to the Euro. Peculiarly, the storm on the supposed crisis has been abierto just when EUROSTAT finishes announcing an historical landmark: the Spaniards generate more income already than the Italians. The glance to the 92 reflects that then the average rent did not arrive at 80% from the one from the zone Euro. Today it surpasses 95%. Homes. The saving of the families, in historical minimums the rate of saving of the homes stays in historical minimums when being placed in 9.9% of the rent available during the third trimester of 2007, three tenth less than in the preceding period. That number, that calculates taking like reference last the four movable trimesters, is lowest of the historical series which it has the National Institute of Estadística (INE). According to these data, that go back at the end of 2000, the maximum levels of saving of the homes were reached from 2002 to 2004 with a rate of 12.2%, informs Raquel D. Pebble. In spite of the low saving of the Spanish families, some experts agree in emphasizing that the economic deceleration entails an important moderation of the consumption, which foreseeably will make round up in some the tenth rate of saving the next months. According to the statistic of the third quarterly on accounts quarterly nonfinanciers of the industrial sectors, published yesterday for the NSI, the numbers that still throw they are responsible to the model of previous growth, in which the families consumed much, increased their necessity of financing by the high investment in house and reduced their saving. This situation, according to the analysts, will begin to correct itself in next statistics, reason why the fall of the rate of saving will stop east year. For Left Gregorio, of the Institute of Economic Studies (IEE), the rate of saving is one of the “great problems” of the Spanish economy and explains imbalances like the inflation, the outer deficit and the high indebtedness. Petroleum. Less vulnerable before the scaling of crude the year it was released with the news of pierced fort economic as it is the rise of the petroleum of reference in the USA until the 100 dollars by barrel. Far they are already the 17 dollars that were pleased in 1991 by black gold, agreeing with the outbreak of the first Gulf War and although there is no a method precise able to predict what repercussion can have, to stay, that level of prices on the world-wide economy, the certain thing is that mark (the Brent quoted yesterday over the 95 dollars) adds more pressure to the governments. The analysts remember that the present situation is not comparable with the rises of the past, because the present system is better preparation to confront the power shocks. In Global consultant MF they defend that the crude one, by itself, is not sufficient to drag to the economy to the recession. They justify and it with several practical examples. The American economy is more efficient at the time of satiating its thirst energetics that in 1980 or 1990. And their citizens dedicate less income (4%) to fill the deposit of their cars and to warm up their houses that for three decades (6%). But the economists remember that there are factors, like the strong demand of the emergent countries and the tense relations of the USA with Iran or Venezuela, that can get to unbalance the advances in efficiency energetics. For Europe, the strength of the Euro, that got to quote in 2007 over 1.48 dollars, is mitigating the invoice energetics, that still are pleased in green tickets, in spite of the resistance that begins to show the producing countries. (The extracted News of Five Days)
 
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